A conservative political scientist says Donald Trump's poll numbers are probably deflated because some people simply don't want to admit they'll vote for the Republican presidential nominee.
In the latest RealClearPolitics compilation of head-to-head polls, Trump has inched ahead of Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton. But in the wake of the GOP convention, several states have moved in Trump's favor. His home state of New York has moved from "safe" Clinton to "likely" Clinton. Several other states have moved from "Clinton" into the "toss-up" column.
But Charles W. Dunn, professor emeritus of government at Clemson University, believes Trump's poll numbers may actually be higher.
"For example - Jesse Helms – it was always the case he was either going to lose according to the polls or it was going to be a really close race,” he says. “And every time, he won going away. That is true of Donald Trump.”
He says there is a phenomenon in states like North Carolina where many people who respond to polls won't admit they'll vote for a candidate like Trump.
“There are people who either are saying that they wouldn't vote for him but will, or simply are not even responding to a poll,” Dunn asserts. “So he has a potential increase in his vote totals based upon the history that we know about of people who are unwilling to say that they would support someone who appears controversial like Donald Trump."
Dunn believes Trump is right on target to win in November.
How accurate are polls on Trump’s White House chances?
0 commentaires:
Enregistrer un commentaire